免税业务承压 中国中免2024年营收净利双降

Core Insights - In 2024, China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) experienced a significant decline in performance due to fluctuations in consumer demand, with revenue dropping to 56.474 billion yuan, a decrease of over 16.4% year-on-year, and net profit falling to 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue in Q4 2024 was 13.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, while net profit plummeted by 76.9% to 348 million yuan, highlighting short-term operational pressures [1] - In Hainan, the revenue reached 28.892 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.13%, with a gross margin of 23.73%, down 2.03 percentage points [2] - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping dropped by 21.6% to 6,477 yuan per person in 2023, continuing into 2024 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The share of Hainan sales in total sales has decreased from approximately 70% in 2021 to 51.4% recently, indicating a shift in consumer behavior as outbound tourism resumes [2] - The number of shoppers in Hainan's duty-free market fell by 15.9% to 5.683 million, and the number of items purchased decreased by 35.5% to 33.082 million [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - To address the decline in mid-tier consumer spending, the company has adjusted its product mix since 2023, reducing the proportion of cosmetics and introducing high-end brands like LV and Dior [3] - Despite rapid growth in premium product revenue, it has not yet compensated for the decline in cosmetics sales [3] Group 4: Investment Projects - The company has invested 8.098 billion yuan in the Haikou International Duty-Free City project, with a total investment of 911 million yuan in 2024, generating 1.668 billion yuan in revenue to date [4] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase I Project has seen a total investment of 1.846 billion yuan, with 911 million yuan invested in 2024, yielding 312 million yuan in revenue [4] Group 5: Business Expansion - The airport duty-free business showed strong performance, with revenue in Shanghai reaching 16.035 billion yuan, a decline of 10.02%, which is less than the decline in Hainan [5] - The company is expanding its city duty-free store network, having completed six stores in major cities and winning bids for six additional stores in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [6][7]