中信证券：关税认定以制造地为准，半导体两条投资逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese semiconductor industry is set to benefit from new tariff regulations that classify the origin of chips based on the location of wafer fabrication, particularly impacting U.S. wafer manufacturers and enhancing the importance of self-sufficiency amid the U.S.-China trade war [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Regulations - The China Semiconductor Industry Association announced that integrated circuits will be classified based on the location of wafer fabrication for tariff purposes, affecting both packaged and unpackaged chips [1] - The core of the tariff imposition is whether the wafer manufacturing occurs in the U.S., as the classification relies on substantial changes in tariff codes [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is expected to see direct benefits for analog chip companies, with a focus on segments with low domestic production rates, particularly where U.S. firms dominate [1] - Key areas of interest include CPU, GPU, FPGA, high-end storage, and analog chips, where U.S. companies like TI, Intel, Micron, and others are significant players [1] Group 3: Localization and Manufacturing - The necessity for localized manufacturing is increasing, with domestic wafer manufacturers likely to benefit from the demand for local production as foreign companies adopt "Local for Local" strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [2] - The importance of self-sufficiency in domestic chip manufacturing is emphasized, suggesting a shift towards more localized production [2] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is advised to focus on segments with low domestic production rates, particularly in the analog chip sector, which is expected to see improved market share and profitability due to tariff changes [3] - Mid-term strategies should include monitoring additional low domestic production rate segments for potential investment opportunities [3]