2024年粤港澳大湾区写字楼市场-第一太平戴维斯

Core Insights - The 2024 Greater Bay Area office market is experiencing adjustments amid challenges, with new productivity trends emerging to drive development [1][6][38] Economic Growth and New Productivity - The Greater Bay Area's economy is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2024, surpassing the national average, although the growth rate has slowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][6][11] - New productivity is becoming a significant driver of economic growth, with Shenzhen's strategic emerging industries seeing a value-added growth of 10.5% [1][6][11] Office Market Supply and Vacancy Rates - The office leasing market is in an adjustment phase, with new supply dropping to a near ten-year low of 1.203 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 46.5% [1][13][12] - The net absorption rate is at 530,000 square meters, with a vacancy rate rising to 28.0%, although the increase in vacancy rates has narrowed due to the development of emerging industries [1][17][18] Rental Market Strategies and Demand Trends - Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are the dominant strategies in the leasing market, with emerging business districts attracting companies due to their cost-effectiveness [1][21][22] - Policy support is driving growth in new office demand, with state-owned buildings showing significant industry cluster effects [1][22] Rental and Price Trends - The rental index has decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 28.6% since the peak at the end of 2018 [2][29][30] - The price index has dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 28.0% since the end of 2018, indicating a more significant decrease in prices compared to rents [2][33][34] Future Market Outlook - The 2025 office market in the Greater Bay Area is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, with a projected supply peak of 4.237 million square meters [2][38] - Despite a challenging external environment, policy support is anticipated to stimulate endogenous demand, aiding market development [2][38]