今天分享的是：第一太平戴维斯：2026年中国房地产市场展望报告 报告共计：20页 2026年中国房地产市场展望总结 2026年中国房地产市场仍处于深度重估阶段，过去四年行业面临的租赁低迷、销售乏力、空置率攀升等问题，推动行业从规模扩张的旧模式向结构性重塑转 型，单纯依赖惯性与价格上涨的发展路径已难以为继，打破成本削减与服务下滑的下行循环成为行业关键命题。 宏观经济层面，2026-2027年中国经济将保持相对稳健增长，增速虽低于2025年预期，但呈现"缓慢修复"态势。经济增长结构持续优化，居民消费增速有望 高于GDP增速，工业生产与整体增长同步，货币环境保持宽松，为房地产行业提供了相对稳定的外部环境。中国经济正形成"三速"格局，产业与科技驱动快 车道，消费修复构成中车道，房地产等传统行业处于调整慢车道，行业需重新定位自身角色以适配新发展秩序。 各细分市场呈现差异化发展特征。办公市场聚焦质效提升，"少即是多"成为核心策略，通过功能复合、存量改造、集约管理优化空间价值，从单纯提供空间 转向成为企业合作伙伴，以品质与服务争夺租户。零售市场虽整体数据平稳，但细分板块分化加剧，传统核心商圈优势弱化，区域型项目与特色运营商 ...

| 股票名称 | 机构名称 | 性质 | 变动前持股 | 变动后持股 | 持股比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绿城管理控股 | 王俊峰 | 好仓 | 520.00 万股 | 239.30 万股 | 0.12%(最新) | | (09979) | | | | | 0.26%(前次) | | 第一太平(00142) | Northern Trust | 可借 | 2.55 亿股 | 2.56 亿股 | 6.00%(最新) | | | Corporation | | | | 5.98%(前次) | 备注：持股数变动有可能因供股、合股、拆股等情况引起，请注意对照实际情况进行辨别。 智通财经APP获悉，绿城管理控股(09979)、第一太平(00142)于2026年2月3日进行了最新股东权益披 露。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 第一太平有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00142 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 6,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 USD | | 60,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 6,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 USD | | 60,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 60,000,000 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 | ...

在此背景下，第一太平作为深耕亚太市场的投资管理龙头，已构建消费性食品、电讯、基建及天然资源四大核心业务 版图，扎根印尼、菲律宾等关键市场，凭借扎实盈利与清晰增长逻辑，正迎来价值重估窗口期。 一、多元协同筑底盈利，民生赛道凸显韧性 第一太平的盈利扎实性，根植于民生产业的精准布局与多元业务的协同对冲效应。 在资本市场中，券商等专业机构的评级向来是感知企业投资价值的重要风向标。 近日，国盛证券发布对第一太平的首次覆盖报告，给予"买入"评级，预测2025年至2027年公司归母净利润将实现 6.49、7.08、7.67亿美元的稳步增长，同比增速分别达8.2%、8.9%、8.4%，引发市场对这在亚太发展逾四十年有稳健 实力的投资管理公司的关注。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万美元) | 10,511 | 10,057 | 10,585 | 11,220 | 11,958 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 2.0 | -4.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.6 ...

2026年，是国家"十五五"规划的开局之年，这一新五年规划系统性勾勒出中国至2030年的发展蓝图。新 旧动能转换、发展范式升级、全球格局重塑，都将在这一时期找到新的交汇点。 理解"十五五"的顶层设计，是预见未来经济脉动与市场机遇的起点。时代的机遇藏在哪里？未来中国经 济增长的核心动力如何精准判断？值此开年之际，南都湾财社发起《开局2026：在新周期起点上》专题 策划。 第一太平戴维斯深圳董事总经理吴睿在接受南都·湾财社记者专访时表示，2026年作为"十五五"开局的 关键之年，房地产行业正处于企稳修复与结构转型的双重关键期，无论是住宅市场的城市分化，还是商 业地产的资本布局，都将呈现出新的特征与机遇。结合当前行业走势、政策导向以及市场表现，当下能 清晰捕捉到楼市筑底复苏的信号，同时也能看到商业地产在调整期中孕育的投资窗口，这些都值得市场 参与者重点关注与思考。 2026年楼市转型，优质资产表现将提振信心 南都·湾财社：站在2026年的全新起点，楼市将走向何方？是延续底部徘徊，还是迎来稳步升温？为什 么做出这样的判断？ 南都·湾财社：判断市场筑底完成或迎来转机的关键指标有哪些？支撑楼市触底回升的核心动力是什 么？ ...

Core Insights - The report by Savills China highlights that modern data centers are evolving from mere "server warehouses" to integrated operating systems that combine energy, cooling, network resilience, and physical security, increasingly incorporating AI-driven operational capabilities [1] Group 1: Data Center Value Proposition - The core value of data centers is no longer determined by floor area but by their ability to continuously, densely, and stably provide computing power [1] - Unlike traditional commercial real estate, the competitiveness of data centers is influenced by factors such as power supply and redundancy, cooling efficiency, network connectivity, operational reliability, and access to low-carbon electricity [1] Group 2: Regional Specialization in Data Centers - The report indicates a clear regional specialization in China's data center operations based on workload characteristics and application scenarios [1] - The eastern region is most suitable for deploying latency-sensitive, high-density workloads, while the central and western regions leverage lower land and electricity costs to handle high-energy tasks like AI training and cold data [1] - Actual utilization rates in these regions depend on the matching of network latency, connectivity, and downstream demand [1]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of structural optimization and steady recovery in 2025, with a focus on long-term value as it transitions into a new phase [1] - The First Pacific Davis released a report analyzing the Shenzhen real estate market, highlighting significant trends and developments [1] Commercial Real Estate - In 2025, Shenzhen will see a supply of 1.182 million square meters of Grade A office space, marking the first time in three years that the market reaches this level [2] - The total stock of Grade A office space in Shenzhen is expected to increase by 9.4% year-on-year to 12.843 million square meters by the end of 2025 [1] Net Absorption and Vacancy Rates - The net absorption for Shenzhen in 2025 is projected to reach 664,000 square meters, a new high since 2021, and 16.9% higher than the five-year average [2] - The average vacancy rate for Grade A office space in Shenzhen is expected to be 31.4% by the end of 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Retail Properties - Six new retail projects will enter the Shenzhen market in 2025, contributing a total supply of 825,000 square meters, the highest since 2018 [2] - The total stock of retail properties in Shenzhen is projected to rise by 11.2% year-on-year to 8.188 million square meters by the end of 2025 [2] Residential Market - The residential market in Shenzhen will see several high-end projects launched in 2025, with strong demand for luxury homes, although overall transaction volume is expected to decline by 24.2% year-on-year to 3.785 million square meters [3] Qianhai Development - Qianhai has transitioned from a "policy testing ground" to a "functional agglomeration area," showcasing characteristics of institutional innovation and industrial ecosystem collaboration [3] - By 2025, over 60% of new demand for Grade A office space in Qianhai will come from financial technology and cross-border service enterprises, indicating strong industrial centripetal force [3] - Future developments in Qianhai are expected to focus on breakthroughs in cross-border data flow, green finance innovation, and high-end professional services, solidifying its strategic position in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3]

Core Insights - Despite significant supply pressure, the Shenzhen office market showed notable highlights in 2025 with a return of over one million square meters of supply for the first time in three years [1] - The demand from technology companies for upgrades and expansions significantly contributed to large transactions and supported net absorption growth [1] - The annual net absorption reached 664,000 square meters, marking a new high since 2021 and exceeding the five-year average by 16.9% [1] Supply and Demand - In 2025, 21 new projects were launched, contributing a total supply area of 1.182 million square meters [1] - The average vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen was recorded at 31.4%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1] - Rental index decreased by 1.9%, with average rent falling to 132.6 yuan per square meter per month [1] Future Outlook - The overall supply scale of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen is expected to remain substantial in 2026, potentially surpassing one million square meters [2] - The development of technology, high-end, and high-tech manufacturing industries is anticipated to positively impact office demand, with expectations for continued growth [2] - The Qianhai area is transitioning from "functional aggregation" to "capability leap," with new breakthroughs expected in cross-border data flow, green finance innovation, and high-end professional services [2]

Core Insights - Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, China's exports still grew by 5.5% in 2025, driven by rapid growth in high-tech products such as electronic intermediate goods, automobiles, and industrial robots [3] - The import growth rate fell to 0%, resulting in a trade surplus that exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, providing positive support for economic growth [3] - For 2026, China's exports are expected to maintain resilience with a projected growth rate of around 5%, supported by increased openness, stable exports to the US, and advantages in AI and "new three items" products [3] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in January included Media (29.0%), Defense and Military (24.0%), and Computer (22.8%), while the bottom performers were Banking (-1.8%) and Food & Beverage (-1.3%) [2] - The overall performance of the media sector showed a remarkable annual increase of 63.7%, indicating strong market dynamics [2] Company-Specific Insights First Pacific (00142.HK) - First Pacific has a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market, with four main business segments: consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources [7] - In 2024, the company reported revenues of $10.057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, while net profit increased by 19.77% to $600 million, showcasing robust profitability [7][8] - The company is expected to see net profits of $649 million, $708 million, and $767 million from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% respectively [8] Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a revenue increase of 31.07% to 33.34% in 2025, with projected revenues between 20.76 billion and 21.12 billion yuan [10] - The company expects net profits to rise by 30.46% to 37.97%, with estimates ranging from 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan [10] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and overseas markets, which is expected to contribute to significant profit growth in the coming years [11][12] Dingjie Intelligence (300378.SZ) - Dingjie Intelligence was recognized as one of the top 20 data intelligence service providers in China, indicating its leadership in AI manufacturing [9] - Revenue projections for Dingjie from 2025 to 2027 are set at 2.438 billion, 2.608 billion, and 2.841 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 180 million, 204 million, and 263 million yuan respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities initiates coverage on First Pacific (00142) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's resilient growth through diversified business collaboration [1] Group 1: Market Leadership and Business Focus - First Pacific is a leading investment management company in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on the livelihood sector with strong competitive advantages in consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources [1] - The company has evolved through four stages: diversified exploration, livelihood focus, industry integration, and strategic deepening, maintaining a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific livelihood market [1] - The management team, led by Lin Fengsheng and Peng Zeren, has extensive cross-industry experience and operates efficiently [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, First Pacific is projected to achieve revenue of $10.057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $600 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.77%, indicating strong profitability and stable performance [1] Group 3: Business Segments - **Consumer Food**: First Pacific's consumer food segment, primarily through Indofood (50.1% economic interest), is a leader in the instant noodle market, with 2024 revenue of $7.29 billion, a slight decrease of 0.65%, contributing $333 million to First Pacific's profits, up 16.91% [2] - **Infrastructure**: The infrastructure segment, led by MPIC (49.9% economic interest), reported a revenue of $1.3 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19%, contributing $199 million to First Pacific's profits, up 24.78% [2] - **Telecommunications**: The telecommunications segment, primarily through PLDT (25.6% economic interest), contributed $149 million to First Pacific's profits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.70%, with a focus on digital services and 5G coverage for future growth [3] - **Natural Resources**: The natural resources segment, managed by Philex Mining (31.2% economic interest), contributed $5 million to First Pacific's profits in 2024, a significant decrease of 36.84%, with expectations for future capacity improvements [3]