Why Nvidia stock is set to break out in May

Group 1: Stock Performance and Historical Trends - Nvidia's stock is down 26% year-to-date, with recent trading showing a decline below the key $100 support level, closing at $97 in premarket trading on April 21 [1] - May is historically Nvidia's strongest month, with an 80% win rate and an average gain of 15% over the past decade, indicating potential for a rebound [2] - In contrast, April and November have shown weaker performance, with win rates of 37% and 42% respectively, suggesting a consistent outperformance in May [4] Group 2: Impact of Trade Tariffs and Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing trade tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing new restrictions on high-performance H20 chips exported to China, are impacting Nvidia's revenue, as China has been a major market [5] - Nvidia is shifting production to the U.S. to mitigate risks, building Blackwell chips and AI supercomputers in Arizona and Texas, although export restrictions could lead to a $5.5 billion charge in Q1 [6] - Analysts express skepticism regarding near-term regulatory approval for these export controls, which could further affect Nvidia's market position [6] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Wall Street sentiment has turned bearish, with Piper Sandler lowering Nvidia's 12-month price target from $175 to $150, citing weaker demand from China and the H20 export ban [7] - Raymond James also reduced its target from $170 to $150 while maintaining a 'Strong Buy' rating, noting that China accounts for about 14% of Nvidia's sales and that much of the risk is already priced in [8]