广发证券：国内集换式卡牌市场处于高速成长期

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the IP licensing is a crucial aspect of the pan-entertainment product industry in China, with large IPs having a broad audience base and consumer recognition [1][3] - The collectible card game market in China is in a rapid growth phase, with Kayo as the leading company, leveraging the Ultraman IP series to establish a solid business foundation [1][2] Group 2: Company Overview - Kayo is recognized as the leader in China's pan-entertainment product sector, with collectible card games as its core product. The company's development can be divided into three phases: initial layout from 2011-2018, IP matrix construction from 2019-2022, and diversification of products since 2022 [2] - By the end of 2024, Kayo's IP matrix is expected to include 70 IPs, with a concentrated shareholding structure where the founding couple holds 83.5% of shares [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The collectible card game market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a comparison of market sizes in 2024 showing China at RMB 14.7 billion, while the US and Japan are at RMB 21.9 billion and RMB 26.3 billion respectively [3] - The per capita spending on collectible card games in China is relatively low at RMB 18.7, indicating substantial growth potential compared to more mature markets like the US and Japan [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Kayo focuses on collectible cards, while competitors like Pop Mart excel in blind boxes and plush toys, and LEGO specializes in building blocks, indicating differentiated competition in the toy industry [4] - Kayo's main IPs are primarily sourced externally, contrasting with Pop Mart's strong self-developed IP system [4] Group 5: Financial Performance - Kayo's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 10.057 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 278%, primarily driven by significant growth in collectible card game revenue [5] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 4.466 billion, nearly quadrupling from 2023, with ample cash reserves supporting further expansion of IP and product matrices [5]