贸易风暴中的避风港——可口可乐

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Coca-Cola, indicating that the company is expected to serve as a safe haven in turbulent markets, with a target price of $78, representing a 6% upside from the current stock price and a dividend yield of approximately 3% [1] Group 1: Company Resilience and Performance - Coca-Cola has demonstrated exceptional operational capabilities over the past five years, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% in organic sales growth [2] - The company's geographic diversification mitigates risks, with only about 17% of total system sales coming from the U.S., allowing strong performance in other markets to offset weaknesses in specific regions [2] - Coca-Cola's strategic focus on marketing, innovation, and business execution has supported its stable growth in a dynamic global operating environment [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The overall impact of tariffs on Coca-Cola is considered limited and manageable, with the juice segment facing the most direct effects [3] - Juice sales account for approximately 4.5% of Coca-Cola's revenue, with a 10% tariff on imports from Brazil, while imports from Mexico are currently exempt [3] - The company is expected to manage cost increases from tariffs on steel and aluminum through its procurement teams and may shift packaging strategies if aluminum costs rise [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - Coca-Cola's stock has outperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 16.8%, compared to a 12.3% decline in the S&P 500 [4] - The company's current trading price is over 20% higher than the S&P 500, reflecting its status as a safe haven in the consumer staples sector [4] - Morgan Stanley projects a 5.8% organic sales growth rate for Coca-Cola in 2025, with expected revenue of $48.353 billion, a 3.1% year-over-year increase [7] Group 4: Comparison with Competitors - Compared to PepsiCo, Coca-Cola's defensive characteristics and higher profitability make it more attractive in the current market environment [8] - PepsiCo's performance is hindered by a weak U.S. snack market and slower growth in international markets, leading to greater growth pressures [8] - Morgan Stanley maintains a neutral rating on PepsiCo with a target price of $159, which has an 11% upside, but notes a lack of short-term catalysts [9]