HPV疫苗降温 智飞生物单季亏3亿

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Zhifei Biological's performance significantly declined, with a 50.74% drop in revenue and a 74.99% decrease in net profit, primarily due to a sharp decline in its core agency business [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 26.07 billion yuan in 2024, down from the previous year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.018 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial decline [3]. - Operating cash flow turned negative for the first time, reaching -4.414 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio climbing to 62.3%, the highest in five years [1][3]. Quarterly Performance - Zhifei Biological experienced net losses for three consecutive quarters in 2024, with quarterly net profits of 1.458 billion yuan, 777 million yuan, -836.964 million yuan, and -1.32 billion yuan respectively [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.374 billion yuan, a 79.16% year-on-year decline, and a net loss of 305 million yuan [3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is attributed to multiple factors, including industry policy adjustments, decreased public vaccination willingness, and changing market demand [3][4]. - The agency business for Merck's HPV vaccines, which has historically contributed significant profits, saw a drastic drop in batch issuance, with a 95.49% decrease for the four-valent HPV vaccine and a 14.8% decrease for the nine-valent HPV vaccine in 2024 [4]. Stock Market Performance - The company's stock price has been on a downward trend, with a drop of over 80% from its historical peak in 2021. On April 22, 2024, the stock fell by 6.86%, closing at 20.23 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 48.43 billion yuan [4]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company believes there is significant potential for growth in the domestic vaccine market, driven by policy support and technological innovation [5]. - The approval of new indications for Merck's HPV vaccines targeting males is expected to create new opportunities, although the impact on batch issuance and revenue remains to be seen [5]. - The launch of domestic bivalent HPV vaccines poses additional competition, but Zhifei Biological is focusing on developing its own products, which contributed 4.53% of revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.98% [6].