Industry Overview - The national tavern market size is projected to reach 112 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, but still not recovering to 2019 levels [2] - As of March 2025, the number of tavern enterprises in China exceeds 38,000, representing a 139.6% increase since 2019 [2] - The new liquor market is undergoing structural adjustments, leading to intensified industry reshuffling [2] Company Performance: Helen's - Helen's, once a leader in the tavern sector, is experiencing a significant downturn, with revenue declining for three consecutive years, from 1.21 billion yuan to 752 million yuan in 2024, and a net profit loss of 78 million yuan [8][9] - The number of Helen's stores increased from 479 to 560, but the number of direct-operated stores halved from 255 to 112, while franchise stores surged from 132 to 406 [8] - Despite an 86% increase in franchise revenue to 195 million yuan, the drastic drop in direct store revenue by over 300 million yuan has led to an overall decline in performance [9] Market Dynamics - Franchise stores have a lower average daily sales of 5,000 yuan, down nearly 30% year-on-year, compared to 7,000 yuan for direct stores, indicating challenges in maintaining brand quality and service consistency [9] - Helen's has seen a reduction of 43 stores in first- and second-tier cities, while adding 123 stores in lower-tier cities, where average daily sales have also dropped significantly [9] - The company's stock price has plummeted by 93% from its peak, reflecting a shift in consumer demand towards more rational and price-sensitive purchasing behavior [11] Emerging Competitors - In contrast, Tang Sanliang, a new player in the market, has rapidly gained traction with a community-based liquor model and secured nearly 10 million yuan in angel funding [12] - Tang Sanliang's business model focuses on direct supply from manufacturers, offering a wide range of liquor at competitive prices, with a franchise investment of around 200,000 yuan and a gross margin exceeding 50% [12][14] - Other brands like Zebra Hero and Hidden Brew are also entering the market, indicating a trend towards lower investment costs and higher profit margins compared to traditional taverns [14] Consumer Trends - The shift from experience-focused taverns to value-driven liquor outlets suggests a broader trend of consumer rationality and a demand for quality and cost-effectiveness [15] - Experts indicate that the success of taverns now hinges on emotional value and effective management, as younger consumers seek more engaging experiences [15] - The industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes product quality and convenience over mere social experiences, reflecting changing consumer preferences [15]
新酒饮洗牌：海伦司营收三连降，新型散酒铺扩加盟；专家称需挖掘消费需求