智飞生物“失速”：代理产品竞争提速，自主产品贡献有限

Core Viewpoint - The financial report for 2024 reveals that Zhifei Biological (300122) experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, attributing the downturn to decreased public vaccination willingness and changing market demands [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 26.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.74%, while net profit was 2.018 billion yuan, down 74.99% [2]. - The company has reported losses for three consecutive quarters, with losses of 83.6964 million yuan and 132 million yuan in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, and a loss of 305 million yuan in the first quarter [2]. - The revenue contribution from agency products accounted for 94.61% of total revenue, with the annual procurement amount from Merck for HPV vaccines being 26.377 billion yuan, representing 86.94% of the total procurement [3]. Market Dynamics - The market for HPV vaccines has become increasingly competitive, with the supply of four-valent and nine-valent HPV vaccines rising, leading to a decline in their issuance by 95.49% and 14.80%, respectively [4]. - The procurement agreements with Merck for HPV vaccines have been adjusted, indicating a forecasted peak in sales for 2024, followed by a gradual decrease in procurement amounts [4]. - The company has also signed a supplementary agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to extend the cooperation period for shingles vaccines while adjusting the procurement plan, resulting in a lower average annual procurement amount [5]. Operational Challenges - The company is facing challenges with inventory and accounts receivable turnover, with inventory turnover days increasing to 296.69 days and accounts receivable turnover days reaching 299.18 days [7]. - Despite a 35.27% increase in vaccine sales, production volume decreased by 52.28%, leading to a 13.20% reduction in vaccine inventory [7]. R&D and Future Outlook - Zhifei Biological has invested 1.391 billion yuan in R&D for 2024, with total R&D investment exceeding 5.1 billion yuan over the past five years, although the contribution from self-developed products remains limited at 1.182 billion yuan, accounting for only 4.53% of total revenue [8]. - The company is exploring international markets, with its tuberculosis diagnostic reagent approved for sale in Indonesia and use in Macau, although exports currently represent only 0.07% of total revenue [8].