Core Viewpoint - The Indian government has decided to impose a temporary 12% tariff on certain imported steel products for 200 days starting from April 21, aimed at protecting the domestic steel industry and curbing the surge of cheap steel imports from China and other regions [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Domestic Impact - India has become a net importer of finished steel for the second consecutive year in the 2024/2025 fiscal year, with a net import volume reaching 9.5 million tons, the highest in nine years [3]. - The imposition of the 12% tariff is expected to increase the social cost of steel in India, despite the ongoing demand gap that necessitates imports [6]. - India's crude steel production has grown significantly, from 68.98 million tons in 2010 to 140.17 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.61% [5]. Group 2: Steel Consumption Trends - Finished steel consumption in India has shown a compound growth rate of 8% from 2020 to 2024, with consumption volumes increasing from 1 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 1.36 million tons in 2024 [5]. - The Indian government has set ambitious targets in its National Steel Policy 2017, aiming for crude steel production capacity to reach 300 million tons by the 2030-2031 fiscal year [5]. Group 3: Export Dynamics and Chinese Steel Industry - The new tariff will increase the cost and price of Chinese steel exports to India, potentially weakening China's price advantage and limiting export volumes [7][8]. - Despite the tariff, the demand for steel in India remains, and the key challenge for Chinese steel products is to reduce costs and improve productivity to maintain competitiveness [11][12]. - The tariff exemptions for certain steel products priced between $675 and $964 per ton may encourage Chinese steel companies to shift towards higher value-added products [9][12]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Chinese Steel Industry - To counter the impact of tariffs, the Chinese steel industry should focus on mergers, capacity optimization, and enhancing cooperation with overseas markets to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and anti-dumping measures [11][13]. - Emphasizing technological innovation and the production of high-end steel products can help Chinese steel companies maintain competitiveness in the face of rising protectionism [13].
印度对华加税12%！中国钢铁出口骤降53%，高附加值产品成破局关键