CICC(SH:601995) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-04-29 06:11Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the southbound capital inflow is expected to reach approximately HKD 800 billion to HKD 1 trillion this year, with various scenarios for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) based on different market conditions [1][2] - In a baseline scenario, the HSI is projected to be around 20,500 points, while in a positive scenario, it could recover to between 23,000 and 24,000 points, and in a pessimistic scenario, it may drop to around 18,000 to 19,000 points due to a 7% decline in corporate earnings [1][2] - Since the beginning of the year, the net inflow of southbound capital has reached HKD 604.08 billion, which is approximately three-quarters of the total inflow of HKD 807.87 billion for the entire previous year, with an average daily inflow 2.5 times that of last year [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current sentiment in the market reflects a pessimistic outlook similar to that of late 2018, with the HSI potentially fluctuating around 20,500 points unless new risks emerge [2] - The report highlights that the market has become desensitized to tariff figures, focusing more on the actual impact on growth, which is closely tied to the progress of negotiations and the effectiveness of mainland policies [2] - It is noted that sectors with technology support and lower export exposure, such as internet technology, remain key investment themes, while cyclical sectors related to domestic demand may present better opportunities if fiscal policies can provide adequate support [2]