利润暴跌，股价反涨，蒙牛怎么了？

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant drop in profits, the capital market remains optimistic about Mengniu's future, as evidenced by a rise in stock prices following the release of its financial report [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Mengniu reported a revenue of 886.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was only 1.05 billion yuan, down 97.8% year-on-year [1]. - The liquid milk business generated 730.66 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 10.97% compared to the previous year [2]. Business Challenges - The significant profit drop is primarily attributed to goodwill impairment related to subsidiaries Bellamy and Modern Dairy, which impacted net profit by 4.33 billion yuan [2]. - The liquid milk business is facing challenges due to a pronounced supply-demand imbalance [2]. - Mengniu's expansion strategy has not resulted in a new growth curve, with past acquisitions, such as Bellamy, failing to deliver expected results [4][5]. Strategic Adjustments - Mengniu is actively working on inventory improvement and exploring new product categories while expanding distribution channels [3]. - Recent favorable policies regarding fertility subsidies may provide new opportunities for Mengniu and other dairy companies [3][11]. - The company is undergoing reforms under new leadership, including inventory management and cost-cutting measures [8]. Market Outlook - The milk powder segment is seen as a potential growth area despite declining population growth rates, as it remains a high-margin business [9]. - Mengniu's milk powder business, excluding Bellamy's impairment, is still profitable [10]. - The introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions is expected to boost the demand for milk products, potentially improving market conditions [11][12].