Tesla(US:TSLA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-05 01:00Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with Powell indicating that rate cuts may depend on inflation trends, while also mentioning that tariff policies could impact the economy [3] - The Fed's stance suggests a cautious approach, balancing between not wanting to cut rates immediately and being wary of potential economic downturns due to tariffs [3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, leading to a drop in oil prices to $58 per barrel for WTI and below $62 for Brent [3] - Short-term oil price fluctuations are anticipated to remain between $55 and $60, with long-term trends dependent on Chinese demand [3] Group 3: Tesla's Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business profits have plummeted by 70%, while energy storage deployment has more than doubled, with Powerwall installations exceeding 1 GWh in a single quarter [4] - Rising supply chain costs in China by 15% and a decrease in Shanghai factory utilization to 75% pose challenges for Tesla [4] - Key factors to monitor include the production progress of the 4680 battery and regulatory risks associated with the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which are critical for stock performance [4] Group 4: US-China Trade Relations - The US has canceled tariff exemptions on small packages from China, indicating a complex negotiation stance, while China is assessing the situation [5] - A potential easing of trade tensions could benefit export stocks, but an escalation in conflict may strengthen sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [5]