南华期货：新品种铸造铝合金期货及期权上市前瞻

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced the public consultation for the futures and options contracts of casting aluminum alloy, indicating the upcoming listing of these products, which will enhance the derivatives series of metal futures in China [1] - The listing of aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a significant step in supporting the real economy and the "dual carbon" strategy, as well as a key development in the risk management system of China's aluminum industry chain [1] - Currently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has already listed futures and options contracts for electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with various non-ferrous metal futures derivatives [1] Group 2 - Aluminum alloys are categorized based on their composition and processing methods, with casting aluminum alloys being produced from recycled aluminum and used in various applications due to their favorable properties [5][8] - The most representative recycled casting aluminum alloy is ADC12, which holds over 70% market share in casting aluminum alloys and is widely used in automotive and electronic applications [8][31] - The production cost of ADC12 is primarily influenced by the price of recycled aluminum, which constitutes 88%-92% of its cost, while silicon and copper are secondary materials [10] Group 3 - The recycled aluminum alloy industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream (waste aluminum collection), midstream (recycled aluminum production), and downstream (end-use applications) [5][24] - In 2024, China's aluminum alloy production is projected to reach 16.14 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, while the production capacity for recycled aluminum alloys is expected to be 17.62 million tons [24] - The automotive sector is the core demand source for ADC12, which is essential for manufacturing engine components and contributes to vehicle lightweighting and performance [31][33] Group 4 - The recycling rate of waste aluminum in China has increased from 70% in 2010 to 84% in 2023, reflecting improvements in the recycling system and resource utilization [19] - The domestic waste aluminum supply is primarily sourced from local recycling, with a significant portion coming from construction, transportation, and electronic sectors [14][16] - The market for recycled aluminum is expected to grow, driven by increasing demand in various industries, including automotive, electronics, and household appliances [33]