警惕熊市反弹陷阱！高盛：当前股市如同“带刺的玫瑰”

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid rebound in global stock markets is characterized as a typical bear market rally, indicating that investors will face pain regardless of market direction [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High volatility in stock prices is primarily driven by short-term news headlines and speculation regarding the evolving U.S. tariff policies and their impact on corporate earnings and valuations [1] - The current risk-reward ratio for stock investments is deemed unfavorable, with significant uncertainty prevailing among investors regarding long-term bullish or bearish consensus [1][6] - Historical data shows that bear market rallies typically last an average of 44 days with an average gain of 14%, while the recent rebound since April 7 has seen an 18% increase [3][4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market participants are caught in a dilemma of either chasing a fading rally or missing out on potential gains, leading to increased difficulty in decision-making [3] - Many investors have been forced to reduce risk exposure due to unclear tariff prospects, only to be compelled to buy at higher prices later [3][6] - Retail investors have significantly increased their risk exposure, with record buying intensity observed in individual stocks and ETFs [9] Group 3: Systematic and Macro Investors - Systematic macro investors have increased their buying scale, reaching $51 billion last week, with expectations to hit $57 billion this week, although the rapid fluctuations may slow down the inflow of funds [8] - Macro investors are reducing their stock exposure despite recent market gains, indicating a divergence between stock market performance and investor sentiment [6][8]