KVB PRIME:摩根大通警告美国并非经济放缓中的避风港！

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the U.S. economy is not a safe haven amid economic slowdown, challenging previous assumptions about U.S. assets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has experienced high volatility followed by a prolonged rally, yet its valuation remains optimistic, with the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio at 21 times, based on projected earnings growth of 10% and 14% for the next two years [3]. - There is a significant increase in the probability of a U.S. recession, rising from 22% in January to 53% in a recent CNBC survey, indicating growing concerns about economic slowdown [4]. - Supply chain data indicates a sharp decline in U.S. port import and export volumes, signaling challenges in foreign trade activities [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with the Conference Board's consumer expectations index reaching its lowest level since 2011, suggesting weakened consumer spending, a critical driver of U.S. economic growth [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is translating into real economic pain, complicating valuation analyses in the current economic environment [5]. - The notion that technology stocks and the dollar may no longer serve as safe havens during market turmoil is highlighted, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3].