Core Viewpoint - The merger of "Snack Busy" and Zhao Yiming's snack business marks the entry of China's bulk snack industry into a "dual oligopoly" era, with the newly formed Mingming Group projected to achieve a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan in 2024, establishing itself as the industry leader and preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong by May 2025 [2][4][16]. Group 1: Company Overview - The merged entity, Mingming, will have over 14,000 stores by the end of 2024, significantly surpassing the 4,726 stores of competitor Wancheng Group [4][7]. - Mingming's market penetration is strong, with 58% of its stores located in county towns and rural areas, covering 28 provinces [4]. - The company boasts a highly efficient supply chain, with an inventory turnover period of only 11.6 days and a logistics system that can cover a 300-kilometer radius within 24 hours [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Mingming's gross margin is projected to be between 7.5% and 7.6%, while its adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 2.3% [7][8]. - In comparison, Wancheng Group achieved a gross margin of 9.52% and a net profit margin of only 0.38% in 2023 [7]. Group 3: Business Model and Challenges - Both Mingming and Wancheng's success relies on a "low margin, high volume" strategy, which presents inherent risks [5][8]. - The heavy reliance on franchisees for expansion may lead to quality control issues, as 99.5% of Mingming's revenue comes from product sales [8][10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with product offerings from Mingming and competitors showing minimal differentiation, leading to price wars [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Three potential paths for Mingming post-IPO are identified: replicating Wancheng's success, transforming into an "ecosystem" model leveraging data, or facing a market downturn leading to a potential collapse [13][14][15]. - The company must address the "impossible triangle" of scale, profit, and quality to ensure sustainable growth [9][16].
鸣鸣很忙：港股IPO的野心与隐忧