dbg markets盾博:美联储不太可能因为“软数据”疲弱就降息

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic outlook is under scrutiny as consumer and business surveys signal anxiety, reflecting market concerns about economic development [1][3] - Despite the anxiety in market sentiment, fundamental economic data shows resilience, with GDP growth and industrial production indices maintaining certain levels without significant declines [3][4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence indices have declined, leading to a pessimistic outlook on future income growth and employment prospects [3] - Consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending decisions due to price fluctuations and potential risks in the job market, impacting overall domestic demand [3] Business Sentiment - Business surveys indicate that many managers are worried about market demand uncertainty, leading to conservative investment decisions and some companies reducing expenditures [3] - The overall economic landscape is complicated by the contrast between negative market sentiment and stable fundamental data [3][4] Federal Reserve Policy - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease monetary policy based solely on "soft data" from consumer and business surveys [4] - Historical experiences show that soft data has often incorrectly predicted recessions, leading the Fed to be more cautious in its policy decisions [4] Labor Market Indicators - The Fed is looking for clear changes in labor market indicators, such as employment participation rates and wage growth, before considering any interest rate cuts [4] - The labor market is viewed as a critical indicator of economic health, influencing the Fed's assessment of recession risks and the need for monetary easing [4] Interest Rate Decision - Goldman Sachs aligns with the consensus that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming decision, as fundamental data has not deteriorated to a level that necessitates immediate action [5] - The Fed's policy adjustments will consider multiple factors, including inflation levels and the global economic environment, to avoid unintended consequences [5]