SCS(SH:601555) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-08 08:14Core Viewpoint - The beer sector is experiencing a recovery in Q1 2025, with revenue of 20.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, and a net profit of 2.519 billion yuan, up 10.62% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend after a challenging 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Trends - In 2024, the beer sector faced pressure with a revenue of 68.038 billion yuan, down 1.67% year-on-year, while net profit reached 7.290 billion yuan, up 6.05% year-on-year [2]. - Q1 2025 shows a recovery with revenue at 20.043 billion yuan, a 3.68% increase, and net profit at 2.519 billion yuan, a 10.62% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Volume and Price Dynamics - The beer market has faced challenges in volume and price since 2024, attributed to weak consumer recovery and proactive inventory management by leading companies [3]. - Despite a weak price performance in Q1 2025, sales have shown signs of recovery, indicating potential for improved volume and price dynamics moving forward [3][4]. Group 3: Cost and Margin Analysis - Cost elasticity has been steadily realized since 2024, with gross margin levels improving throughout the year [3]. - In Q1 2025, while the price per ton has decreased, cost elasticity has continued, leading to sustained improvements in gross margin [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The operational rhythm is expected to support a recovery in volume and price, particularly as Q2 and Q3 2025 enter a low base period [4]. - The current low inventory levels in distribution channels, combined with the approaching peak beer consumption season, present investment opportunities in companies like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer [5].