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Core Viewpoint - Amazon is facing significant challenges due to changes in global trade dynamics, particularly the impact of tariffs and trade policies on its supply chain and profitability [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Amazon reported net sales of $155.67 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, marking the lowest growth rate in 2023; net profit was $17.13 billion, up 64% from the previous year [2]. - The retail segment remains the largest revenue source, with online store sales growing 5% to $57.41 billion, and third-party seller services increasing by 6% to $36.51 billion [2]. - AWS cloud services generated $29.27 billion in sales, a 17% increase, and $11.55 billion in operating income, helping to offset pressures from the retail sector [2][7]. Impact of Tariffs - Amazon's guidance for Q2 indicates revenue between $159 billion and $164 billion, with operating profit expected to be between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, both below analyst expectations [3]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that if Amazon cannot pass on tariff costs, it could face annual profit losses of up to $10 billion, equivalent to 17% of its projected net profit for 2024 [4][6]. - The cost of goods sold in the U.S. could rise by 15%-20% due to tariffs, with global costs increasing by 9%-12% [3][4]. Seller Dynamics - Many third-party sellers are already raising prices and cutting advertising spend due to increased costs from tariffs, which could reduce Amazon's commission income and affect product diversity on the platform [3][4]. - Some sellers are preemptively stockpiling inventory to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but this is a short-term strategy that may lead to price increases as inventory depletes [5][6]. Market Response - Despite current challenges, Amazon has not yet observed a significant decline in market demand or a substantial increase in average retail prices [5]. - The upcoming Prime Day event may see reduced participation from some sellers due to tariff impacts, potentially affecting advertising revenue [6]. Long-term Outlook - Amazon's strong brand and Prime membership system may help maintain market share despite competitive pressures from platforms like Temu, especially in the context of ongoing tariff challenges [6][7]. - The performance of AWS and advertising segments, which grew by 17% and 18% respectively, may provide a buffer against retail pressures [7].