LBX(SH:603883) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-08 21:25Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting behaviors of domestic exporters and citizens regarding currency exchange, highlighting a unique phenomenon where exporters are converting USD to RMB while citizens are converting RMB to HKD, indicating differing perceptions of the RMB's future value and economic conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Behavior - Domestic exporters are rapidly converting their USD earnings into RMB, believing the current exchange rate of approximately 7.3 is favorable for exports and that further depreciation of the RMB is unlikely [1][6]. - Conversely, domestic citizens are exchanging RMB for HKD, leading to a significant influx of capital into Hong Kong, with net inflows through the Stock Connect reaching 570 billion RMB from January to April, which is 77% of last year's total [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB interest rate (CNH Hibor) has dropped significantly, aligning closely with the domestic RMB interest rate (Shibor) at an annualized rate of about 1.7%, a decrease of 50% since January [2][3]. - This alignment indicates that borrowing costs in Hong Kong for RMB are now comparable to those in mainland China, a situation that has been rare in the past five years [4][5]. Group 3: Market Perceptions and Economic Signals - The disparity in currency exchange behavior stems from a fundamental difference in how exporters and domestic citizens perceive the RMB's future; exporters focus on government policies that support export competitiveness, while citizens are influenced by broader economic sentiments and fears of depreciation [10][11]. - The urgency for maintaining the RMB's exchange rate has shifted towards stimulating domestic economic growth, as indicated by the recent decline in the US dollar index from 110 to 99, which has eased pressure on the RMB [12][13][14].