Affirm(AFRM.US)Q3扭亏为盈 Q4营收预测不及预期

Core Viewpoint - Affirm reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, but its revenue forecast for the fourth quarter fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a 10% drop in stock price during after-hours trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 FY2025, Affirm's earnings per share were $0.01, exceeding the expected loss of $0.03 per share, with a net profit of $2.8 million compared to a loss of $133.9 million in the same period last year [1]. - Revenue for the quarter was $783 million, matching expectations, and represented a 36% year-over-year increase from $576 million [1]. - The total Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $8.2 billion, reflecting a 36% year-over-year growth [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Affirm's revenue forecast for Q4 is between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, which is below the expected $841 million, disappointing investors [1]. - The company anticipates Q4 GMV to be between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion, with a midpoint of $9.55 billion, exceeding market expectations of $9.2 billion [2]. - Adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 23% and 25%, aligning closely with the market estimate of 23.8% [2]. Group 3: User Growth and Partnerships - The total number of active users has increased to 22 million, with 2 million new users added [2]. - The "Affirm Card" business saw GMV surge by 115% year-over-year, with the number of active card users doubling [2]. - Partnerships with major platforms like Apple, Amazon, and Shopify continue to drive transaction volume growth [2]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announced the cessation of a regulation that increased compliance difficulties for BNPL providers, which is viewed as a positive development for Affirm and similar companies [2]. - The volume of 0% interest loans has increased significantly, rising 44% year-over-year, often subsidized by merchants to boost sales [2]. - Affirm's core "4-installment payment" product maintains stable credit quality, with a default rate below 1% [2]. Group 5: Stock Performance - Despite improvements in fundamentals, Affirm's stock has declined by 11% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq index has decreased by approximately 7% during the same period [3].