Toyota(US:TM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-09 02:51Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation anticipates a significant decline in consolidated net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a 34.9% drop to 3.1 trillion yen, primarily due to U.S. tariffs and yen appreciation [1][3]. Financial Forecast - The company expects operating profit to decrease by 21% to 3.8 trillion yen, falling short of analysts' expectations of 4.7 trillion yen [1][3]. - For the fiscal year 2025, Toyota forecasts a revenue increase of only 1% to 48.5 trillion yen, which is significantly below market expectations [4]. Impact of Tariffs and Currency Fluctuations - The 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on imported vehicles and parts has already resulted in an operating profit loss of 180 billion yen (approximately $1.25 billion) for April and May 2025 [3]. - The appreciation of the yen against the dollar is expected to reduce profits by 745 billion yen, with each 1 yen increase in value leading to a 50 billion yen decrease in operating profit [3]. Sales and Electric Vehicle Transition - Despite challenges, Toyota projects a 1.2% increase in global sales for fiscal year 2025, reaching 10.4 million units, with electric vehicle sales expected to account for 49.8% of total sales [4]. - The company is accelerating its transition to electric vehicles, although sales growth is insufficient to offset profit declines [4]. Industry Context and Strategy - Toyota's situation reflects broader trade risks facing the global automotive industry, with the U.S. market representing 23% of its global sales [5]. - Unlike other Japanese automakers that have made aggressive adjustments, Toyota plans to optimize its supply chain and increase local production to mitigate tariff risks [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Following the financial forecast, Toyota's stock price fell by 2.3% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with analysts suggesting that profit expectations may be further downgraded if U.S. tariffs escalate or the yen continues to appreciate [6].