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ING:美联储观望立场或持续至9月 届时降息幅度有望达50个基点

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing a robust economic expansion and a stable labor market, while acknowledging increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation [2][3] - ING suggests that the Fed's "wait-and-see" approach may continue for several policy meetings, as officials assess the impact of government trade policies on inflation amidst a strong labor market [3][4] - Consumer and business confidence has plummeted to levels consistent with historical recessions, raising concerns for the Fed, which may lead to a delayed but potentially larger rate cut later in the year [4][5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the Fed's announcement with a slight decline in interest rates and a steepening yield curve, indicating readiness to address rising unemployment while tolerating inflation risks [5][6] - There were no substantial comments regarding the balance sheet reduction process, with the Fed maintaining a net buying position in government bonds, while the monthly cap for mortgage-backed securities remains at $35 billion [5][6] - The foreign exchange market showed limited reaction to the Fed's statements, with the dollar weakening slightly, influenced more by concerns over rising unemployment and inflation rather than a clear hawkish or dovish stance from the Fed [7][8]