荷兰国际银行外汇策略师Francesco Pesole表示，从美欧短期利率差异来看，欧元兑美元理应更高。他认 为，美联储的降息幅度可能会超过当前市场的普遍预期。相较于欧洲央行，市场对美联储未来降息的预 期空间要大得多，因此在未来几个月，欧元兑美元有望走高。他说："我们仍然认为，欧元兑美元将重 回1.17上方。"数据显示，美国货币市场已完全消化了美联储年内将进行两次25个基点降息的预期，而 欧元区货币市场则预计欧洲央行在年底前仅有30%的可能性进行一次降息。 来源：滚动播报 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 荷兰国际银行外汇分析师 Francesco Pesole认为，美元的强势缺乏基本面支撑，若数据不配合，美元上 行动能或难以为继。 ...

来源：滚动播报 荷兰国际集团经济学家伯特·科莱恩在一份报告中表示，欧元区通胀率小幅上升至略高于欧洲央行2%的 目标水平，尽管未来前景面临诸多风险，但这一数据印证了当前通胀环境总体趋于稳定。鉴于利率已处 于中性水平，此时选择暂停降息是一个合乎逻辑的决策。不过，考虑到经济增长乏力、未来经济仍面临 不确定性，以及市场普遍预期美联储将再次降息，部分欧洲央行政策制定者仍可能推动再进行一次降 息。但这种可能性较低，因为目前维持利率不变的理由已相当充分。 ...

Group 1: Momentum Investing Overview - Momentum investing involves following a stock's recent trend, with the strategy of "buying high, hoping to sell higher" [1] - The Zacks Momentum Style Score helps investors identify stocks with momentum by focusing on key metrics [2] Group 2: ING Groep Performance - ING Groep currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [3][4] - Over the past week, ING shares increased by 0.12%, while the Zacks Banks - Foreign industry rose by 0.6% [6] - In the last month, ING's price change was 2.35%, compared to the industry's 4.41% [6] - Over the past quarter, ING shares increased by 13.1%, and over the last year, they gained 31.95%, outperforming the S&P 500's 10.77% and 17.6% respectively [7] Group 3: Trading Volume and Earnings Outlook - ING's average 20-day trading volume is 2,652,426 shares, indicating a bullish sign if the stock rises with above-average volume [8] - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for ING moved higher, increasing the consensus estimate from $2.22 to $2.33 [10] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards, with no downward revisions [10] Group 4: Conclusion - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, ING Groep is positioned as a strong momentum pick [12]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Deutsche Bank's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and Deutsche Commercial Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to their stock performance exceeding the market since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European banking sector has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall European stock market [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include strong growth momentum, a more stable and steeper interest rate trajectory, and ongoing performance growth and rating upgrades [1] Group 2: Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for European banks, projecting an average potential stock price increase of about 10% over the next 12 months, with some stocks rated "Buy" expected to rise by approximately 20% [1] - Stocks rated "Buy" include UBS Group, ING Group, Lloyds Banking Group, BNP Paribas, National Westminster Group, Santander Bank, and HSBC [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The interest rate curve has steepened this year, with expectations for final rates trending towards a range-bound movement, enhancing investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for net interest income [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by ING analyst Chris Turner indicates that the euro is declining due to a stronger dollar and diminishing hopes for a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Thursday exceeded expectations, leading the market to reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which in turn strengthened the dollar [1] - If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole further encourages the market to lower the probability of a September rate cut, the euro may continue its downward trend towards 1.1500 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Efforts by former President Trump to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not made progress, contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding the euro [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inghams Group reported a total revenue decline of 1.5% to $3.15 billion, with EBITDA on an as-reported basis down 15.3% to $392 million, largely due to a significant reduction in AASB 16 charges and lower feed pricing [10][12][14] - Underlying EBITDA pre AASB 16 was $100,000 higher than FY 2024, indicating resilience despite volume headwinds [10][12] - Net debt increased by $82.5 million, influenced by the acquisition of Bostock Brothers and capital investments [13][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core poultry volumes decreased by 1.4%, driven by a 2.5% decline in Australian volumes, while New Zealand experienced a strong growth of 5.2% [6][21] - Australian revenue fell by 2.6% to $2.64 billion, primarily due to the transition to a new Woolworths supply agreement [21] - New Zealand's revenue rose by 4% to CAD 512.3 million, supported by the Bostock Brothers acquisition, which contributed significantly to volume growth [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group core poultry net selling prices (NSP) increased by 0.55% to $6.31, but declined sequentially in the second half by 96 basis points [7][10] - Australian NSP saw a slight increase across FY '25 but faced a 2.3% decline in the second half due to pricing pressures [7][22] - New Zealand NSP improved by 2.9%, with retail pricing increasing by 7.7%, although this was partially offset by declines in wholesale and foodservice channels [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational discipline and strategic positioning to navigate challenging market conditions, with a disciplined approach to cost management and customer service [5][34] - A multi-year investment program of around $120 million is planned to enhance automation and processing capabilities, aimed at improving efficiency and supporting value growth [25][28] - The company aims to match supply with demand, optimize costs, and maintain strong customer relationships to drive long-term value creation [34][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the significant challenges faced in Q4 due to the transition to the new Woolworths contract and a softening retail market, but expressed confidence in the medium-term outlook [6][32] - The company expects underlying EBITDA pre AASB 16 for FY '26 to be between $215 million and $230 million, with earnings weighted towards the second half [35][36] - Management noted that while feed costs are expected to provide a modest benefit, operating costs are anticipated to rise modestly due to inflation [36][37] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant sustainability milestones, including moving to 100% renewable energy in New Zealand and achieving carbon neutral certification for its Marion Bay brand [30] - The safety performance improved, with a decline in the total recordable injury frequency rate [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the material deterioration in Q4? - Management identified three main drivers: the transition of Woolworths volumes, competitors not reducing processing volumes as expected, and a softening retail market [42][43] Question: Why is there no expected feed benefit in FY '26? - Management clarified that while some feed benefits were shared with customers, the timing of benefits from feed price reductions may differ from historical patterns [45][66] Question: Is the market deterioration due to competition or other factors? - Management indicated that while poultry remains a long-term growth proposition, Q4 saw a decline in consumer confidence and cost of living pressures impacting demand [48][49] Question: Are the pressures seen in Q4 transitory or fundamental? - Management views the pressures as transitory, linked to inventory buildup and production adjustments rather than fundamental market changes [53][54] Question: What is the outlook for pricing in FY '26? - Management expects a slight decline in pricing, with improvements anticipated as the year progresses, despite current excess supply [70][80]

Financial Performance - Group Underlying EBITDA pre AASB 16 was stable at $236.4 million, despite customer changes and softer market conditions in the fourth quarter[14] - Australia's Underlying EBITDA pre AASB 16 decreased by 3.4% to $183.7 million due to Woolworths supply agreement changes and weaker trading in Q4 2025[16] - New Zealand's Underlying EBITDA pre AASB 16 increased significantly by 14.3% to $52.7 million, driven by favorable market economics, innovation, and brand investments[16] - Core poultry volume declined by 1.4% to 461.2kt, with Australia down 2.5% to 388.0kt and New Zealand up 5.2% to 73.2kt[16, 17] - The company declared dividends of 19.0 cents per share, a decrease of 1.0 cent per share compared to the prior corresponding period[17] Cost Management and Market Dynamics - Feed costs decreased by $57.2 million, contributing to overall cost savings[16, 38] - Net Selling Price (NSP) growth was modest at 0.5%, reaching $6.31/kg, masking significant wholesale pricing pressure[16, 29] - Wholesale pricing declined by 9.2% in FY25, impacting margins[29] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for FY25 totaled $104.1 million, focused on sustaining and investing projects[47, 48] - FY26 Underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) is expected to be between $215.0 million and $230.0 million, with a stronger performance anticipated in the second half of the year[102] - The company is implementing $60–$80 million of annualised structural cost reductions to largely offset general FY26 cost inflation[101]

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the financial sector, particularly focusing on investment opportunities and market dynamics [4]. Group 1 - The financial sector has seen significant changes in recent years, with a shift towards digitalization and technology-driven solutions [4]. - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative strategies to enhance their competitive edge and meet evolving consumer demands [4]. - The article highlights the importance of staying informed about market trends to identify potential investment opportunities [4].