JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-12 00:35Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices may rise to $6,000 per ounce by 2029, driven by potential asset sell-offs due to Trump's policies [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Trump's policies, including a proposed 145% tariff on trade partners, may lead to a sell-off of U.S. assets, prompting foreign investors to consider reallocating their investments [3] - A mere 0.5% shift of foreign investors' U.S. assets into gold could result in an influx of $273.6 billion, equivalent to approximately 2,500 tons of gold, significantly impacting the gold market [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, indicating potential economic adjustments due to trade wars and tariffs, which could influence future policy decisions [3] - The gold supply is not fixed; if prices reach $4,000, previously unprofitable mines may resume production, potentially moderating price increases [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to treat the gold price prediction as a warning rather than a definitive forecast, suggesting a strategic allocation of 10%-15% of total assets into gold ETFs or physical gold [4] - The gold-silver ratio is approaching 75, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities, as historically, ratios above 80 have led to such scenarios [4] - Monitoring key economic indicators like U.S. CPI data and election polls is recommended for making informed short-term investment decisions [4]