YILI(SH:600887) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-12 07:19Core Viewpoint - Yili stands out in the dairy industry with the highest cumulative dividend of 50.86 billion yuan since its listing, and plans to distribute a record dividend of 7.726 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 91.4% [2][3]. Group 1: Dividend Performance - Yili has distributed a total of 50.859 billion yuan in dividends since its listing in 1996, with 24 distributions [3]. - Other dairy companies have significantly lower cumulative dividends, with Mengniu at 15.496 billion yuan and China Feihe at over 12.816 billion yuan [3]. - Yili's dividend payout ratio has consistently remained above 70% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong shareholder returns [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yili's net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, is projected to be 11.539 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [4]. - The liquid milk segment is robust, with expected revenue of 75.003 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the largest market share in its category [4]. - The ice cream business continues to lead the national market with revenue of 8.721 billion yuan, while the milk powder and dairy products segment is also performing well with a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, up 7.53% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Control and Supply Chain - Yili has effectively reduced operating costs, with a 10.01% decrease to 76.299 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - Sales and management expenses have also declined, allowing for increased investment in research and development, which saw a 2.33% increase in 2024 and a significant 31.51% increase in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. - The company has strategically acquired dairy farms and partnered with small farmers to secure milk supply at lower costs [5]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The decline in raw milk prices has severely impacted upstream dairy farmers, with over 90% of dairy farms facing losses and a projected 4.5% decrease in national dairy cow inventory by the end of 2024 [6]. - The financial struggles of competitors like Mengniu's Modern Dairy, which reported a loss of 1.47 billion yuan in 2024, highlight the challenges within the industry [6]. - Despite a potential recovery in the dairy market, uncertainties remain regarding raw milk price fluctuations and increasing competition, which could affect Yili's market share and future dividend capabilities [7].