Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-12 11:46Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the S&P 500 index rising for nine consecutive days, it is still down 3% year-to-date, while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF has increased by 14% this year [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief market strategist, Mike Wilson, emphasizes a focus on cyclical factors rather than structural ones when evaluating U.S. and international stock performance [1] - Wilson believes that high-quality growth assets are favored in a slowing macro environment, with U.S. large-cap indices performing well due to their lower earnings volatility [1] Group 2 - Wilson identifies that the next significant test for the S&P 500 index will occur in the 5750 to 5800 range, where the 200-day and 100-day moving averages converge [2] - Two of the four conditions necessary for a sustained rally have been met: increased optimism regarding the U.S.-China trade agreement and stable corporate earnings forecasts [4] - For continued upward movement, a more dovish Federal Reserve and a 10-year Treasury yield below 4% are required [5] Group 3 - One downside risk is the deterioration of the labor market, although companies have not broadly implemented layoffs according to earnings call data [6] - Another risk is if the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%, which could negatively impact stock valuations by reversing the correlation between stock returns and bond yields [6]