Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-12 23:40Core Viewpoint - The domestic medical device industry is in a rapid development phase, with short-term negative impacts from medical insurance cost control, but long-term optimism remains due to innovation-driven import substitution and globalization [1][2]. Industry Overview - The impact of COVID-19 is gradually diminishing, while multiple policy disturbances are putting short-term pressure on hospital diagnosis and treatment. Internationalization is expected to bring new growth points [2]. - In 2024, the revenue of listed medical device companies is projected to be 254.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 13.82% to 27.25 billion yuan. Different sub-sectors show significant divergence in performance [2]. Sub-sector Analysis Low-value Consumables - Revenue is expected to grow by 12.86% in 2024, with net profit increasing by 114.83%. This growth is attributed to the recovery from inventory destocking and accelerated international expansion [2][7]. - In Q1 2025, revenue growth is projected at 2.37%, with net profit growth of 7.19%. The sector is expected to return to normal growth trends as the low base effect diminishes [7]. High-value Consumables - Revenue is projected to grow by 3.58% in 2024, while net profit is expected to decline by 4.09%. The sector is relatively stable, but performance varies across different segments due to the pace of centralized procurement [2][6]. - In Q1 2025, revenue growth is expected to be 0.25%, with a net profit decline of 6.15% [6]. Medical Equipment - Revenue is expected to decline by 1.38% in 2024, with a net profit decrease of 17.93%. The sector faces challenges from anti-corruption measures and delays in bidding processes [2][5]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to decline by 5.27%, with net profit decreasing by 14.10% [5]. In Vitro Diagnostics - Revenue is expected to decline by 6.13% in 2024, with a net profit decrease of 47.04%. The sector is affected by policies such as DRGs and centralized procurement, leading to significant price declines [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to decline by 15.39%, with a net profit decrease of 40.27% [4]. Investment Recommendations - Despite short-term pressures, the industry shows potential for growth through international expansion and innovative projects. Companies with early overseas layouts and those focusing on unique projects are recommended for investment [4][6].