降息预期别太高？欧央行大鹰派又回来了！

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has signaled a hawkish stance, suggesting that the ECB should maintain interest rates close to current levels due to potential inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and tariffs in the Eurozone [1][2]. Group 1: Schnabel's Hawkish Position - Schnabel emphasized that the Eurozone's fiscal policy is expanding at an unprecedented scale, which could create upward pressure on potential inflation in the medium term [2][3]. - She highlighted that external demand in the Eurozone may remain resilient, partly due to the region's focus on producing goods that are difficult to replace in the U.S. market, indicating low price elasticity for Eurozone exports [2][3]. - Recent improvements in the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, particularly in new export orders, support Schnabel's hawkish viewpoint [2]. Group 2: Morgan Stanley's Analysis - Morgan Stanley analyst Greg Fuzesi noted that while Schnabel's stance is hawkish, it may underestimate the risks of declining inflation [1][3]. - Fuzesi pointed out that many Eurozone companies produce goods with higher price sensitivity, which contradicts Schnabel's low price elasticity argument [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policy impacts and the potential for fiscal policy to be implemented effectively were also highlighted as concerns [4].