闹剧结束，英伟达年底股价将回升

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 34% since April 6, despite the announcement of needing a license to export its H20 GPU to China, indicating strong market confidence in the company's valuation and future performance [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Following the 8-K report, Nvidia's stock experienced a 7% sell-off, but analysts remain optimistic, believing the stock is undervalued compared to its historical performance and peers like AMD [1][3]. - Analysts have reiterated a strong buy rating, projecting that the company's performance at the end of the month will exceed that of the first quarter, despite the export challenges for the H20 GPU [3]. - Since the announcement on April 15, Nvidia's stock has risen by 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [6]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Market Dynamics - Analysts estimate that the sale of 1 million H20 GPUs in 2024 could generate $12 billion in revenue, which may contribute to a decline in overall profit margins since these GPUs are priced over 10% lower than Huawei's Ascend 910B [3]. - Major Chinese clients, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, ordered over $16 billion worth of H20 chips in the first quarter, suggesting strong demand and potential for exceeding previous sales figures [7]. - Nvidia's stock remains lower than its peers in most valuation ratios, indicating potential for further appreciation [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Conditions - The recent withdrawal of AI diffusion rules by the Trump administration has introduced uncertainty in the U.S. semiconductor industry, which could benefit Nvidia [7]. - The company has previously navigated export restrictions, such as the ban on A100/H100 GPUs to China, by introducing compliant alternatives like the A800/H800 chips [3]. - Analysts are cautious about upcoming semiconductor tariffs, which could impact pricing and profit margins, but customers have not reduced their capital expenditure expectations [12].