Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-13 09:14Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists have shifted their perspective on the U.S. economic outlook, indicating that the rationale for interest rate cuts has transitioned from "providing insurance" to "normalization" due to relatively robust economic growth and a slight easing in unemployment rate increases [1][5]. Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate - The U.S. economy is showing relatively strong growth, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%. Additionally, the likelihood of an economic recession within the next 12 months has been reduced to 35% [3]. Adjustment of Rate Cut Expectations - Based on the latest economic outlook, Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates later than previously anticipated, specifically in December instead of July, and to implement rate cuts at alternating meetings rather than consecutively [4][8]. Shift in Rationale for Rate Cuts - The reasoning behind potential rate cuts has evolved from a focus on providing insurance against economic uncertainty and recession risks to a more measured approach aimed at normalizing interest rates to more typical levels [5][7]. Market Reaction and Future Outlook - The adjustment in Goldman Sachs' perspective has garnered significant attention in the market, with investors likely to be influenced by the revised expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Continuous monitoring of the Fed's official statements and economic data will be essential for understanding market trends [6][8].