大涨背后的逻辑断裂：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite recent market gains and a strong dollar, continuing to chase these gains is no longer attractive due to weakening economic data and rising term premium risks, which may lead to market adjustments [1] - Citi's report highlights that the reduction in DOGE spending and declining tariff revenues could trigger a surge in term premium, potentially resulting in a "triple whammy" of falling U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar [1][10] - The report indicates that the upcoming labor market report in May may start to reflect the negative impacts of recent policies, which could elevate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 50 basis points back to 100 basis points [5] Group 2 - Citi emphasizes the need for investors to connect the policies of the Trump administration, noting that the DOGE plan aimed to cut costs while tariffs were intended to increase revenues, but the chaotic implementation has led to a potential increase in fiscal deficits [6] - The report expresses concern over the high level of U.S. term premium, with expectations that the 30-year swap spread will narrow further to -95 basis points later this year [6][10] - Historical data suggests that the state of rising term premium may persist, especially as budget issues come to the forefront, compounded by low foreign demand for U.S. debt, which could exacerbate fiscal risks [10] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the current dollar rebound presents an opportunity to sell dollars at better prices, with a belief that the dollar's weakness this year is cyclical rather than structural [13] - Analysts are particularly focused on the attractiveness of long positions in Swiss francs as a safe haven, while noting that the Swiss National Bank cannot intervene in tariff issues without being perceived as currency manipulation [16] - Investors are advised to closely monitor whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks the critical 5% level and whether the yield curve steepens, as these could signal increased term premium risks and potential adjustments in risk assets and a weakening dollar [18]