dbg markets盾博:美国经济衰退风险目前低于50%

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has lowered the risk of a U.S. economic recession to below 50% and adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from September to December [1][3]. Economic Outlook - JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, attributes the improved outlook to the U.S. government's recent reduction of certain tariffs on China, which has significantly lowered recession risks [3]. - The firm has raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy, now expecting a growth of 0.6% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 0.2% [3]. Inflation and Employment - A key inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, is now expected to rise to 3.5%, down from an earlier forecast of 4%, indicating reduced inflationary pressures [3]. - Although a slight decline in employment is anticipated later this year due to a slowdown in labor demand, the overall employment situation is not deemed alarming, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to act [4]. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Timing - The adjustment in the expected timing for interest rate cuts reflects a broader consensus among major Wall Street firms, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays also pushing their rate cut predictions to December [4][5].