Bank of America(US:BAC) Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-05-15 05:25Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite weak sentiment data indicating an impending economic downturn, if a recession does not materialize, the U.S. stock market could experience a significant rally, potentially in double digits [1] - Historical data shows that when ISM manufacturing and consumer surveys decline sharply without leading to a recession, the U.S. stock market has averaged a 17% increase over the following 12 months [1] - Current conditions are favorable for a potential market rebound, as soft data contrasts sharply with strong hard data, indicating a historical extreme gap between pessimistic sentiment and optimistic facts [1] Group 2 - Despite a weak GDP performance in Q1 attributed to tariff disruptions, the company anticipates a significant reversal in Q2, projecting a 2% GDP growth and a potential rise in the S&P 500 index to nearly 6900 points if a recession is avoided [2] - Additional bullish factors for the summer U.S. stock market include progress in trade negotiations, policy shifts towards tax cuts and deregulation, and the return of manufacturing from emerging markets [2]