Citi(US:C) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-05-15 06:42Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, with a drop of 2.1% to below $3200 per ounce, is attributed to easing global trade tensions and a major downgrade in gold price forecasts by Citigroup, which has surprised the market [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in gold prices is primarily influenced by breakthroughs in US-China trade negotiations, which have reduced market risk aversion and led to capital flowing out of safe-haven assets like gold [2][4]. - A general easing of geopolitical tensions has increased market risk appetite, further diminishing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Technical factors played a role, as gold prices failed to maintain the critical psychological level of $3200 per ounce, leading to intensified selling pressure [2][3]. - The recent US CPI data showed moderate performance, cooling expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the dollar and put additional pressure on gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Citigroup has significantly revised its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a reduction of 10%, indicating a more cautious outlook for the gold market [3][4]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has seen a decline in holdings from 957.17 tons to 936.51 tons, a drop of over 20 tons, reflecting reduced investor interest in gold [4]. - Analysts suggest that despite the current downturn, gold remains in a long-term upward trend, supported by ongoing demand from central banks and market conditions that may favor gold in the future [5][6]. - Predictions from Morgan Stanley indicate that gold prices could rise to $6000 per ounce by 2029, representing an increase of approximately 80% from current levels [6].