Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-15 12:48Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% respectively, while maintaining an overweight rating on Chinese stocks [2] - This marks the second upgrade of Chinese stock ratings by Goldman Sachs within the month, with a previous report on May 8 also maintaining an overweight rating and raising earnings per share forecasts for major indices in the Chinese market for 2025 [2] - The Chinese stock market has fully recovered losses since the U.S. "Freedom Day," with the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index exceeding early April highs by approximately 2% to 4% as of May 14 [2] Group 2 - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has led Goldman Sachs to raise economic growth expectations for both countries and lower the likelihood of a U.S. recession, while also adjusting the timeline for potential Fed rate cuts [3] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on several themes to capture excess returns in the Chinese stock market, particularly in the domestic demand-driven sectors such as internet and service industries, which are expected to benefit from consumption recovery and accelerated digital transformation [3] - The infrastructure industry chain, including building materials, engineering machinery, and new energy vehicles, is anticipated to see solid development due to policy stimulus [3] Group 3 - Other foreign investment banks, including Nomura, UBS, and Invesco, have also expressed optimism about the performance of the Chinese market, with Nomura upgrading its rating on Chinese stocks to tactical overweight [4] - The reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China is viewed as a significant surprise that could support market sentiment and sustain the recent rebound in the Chinese stock market [4] - Given the current discount of the A-share market compared to global emerging markets, there is an expectation of continued net inflows of global capital into the Chinese market [4]