失去澳洲Core锂矿后，雅化集团是福是祸？

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. has terminated an overseas lithium ore purchase agreement during a downturn in the lithium carbonate market, with Core agreeing to pay $2 million in settlement [2][3] Termination of Purchase Agreement - The agreement was signed in 2019, where Yahua International was to purchase 6% lithium oxide concentrate from Core's Finniss lithium mine, which has now ceased operations due to high mining costs and declining lithium salt prices [3][4] - Yahua Group asserts that the termination will not impact its raw material supply, as it has established stable resource channels through both external purchases and self-controlled mining [2][3] Market Conditions - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped from 78,800 RMB/ton to 65,000 RMB/ton, reflecting a decline of 17.51% since the beginning of the year, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 16.36% [4] - The CIF price for 6% spodumene concentrate has fallen by 8% to $700/ton, indicating a tightening of profit margins for lithium extraction [4][5] Industry Outlook - The lithium carbonate supply is expected to increase by 32% year-on-year in 2024, driven by new projects and the resumption of production at major mining facilities [6] - Despite the current unprofitability of its lithium business, Yahua Group plans to expand its production capacity, with a projected total lithium salt capacity of nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025 [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2023, Yahua Group's lithium business generated 8.298 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue, but the gross margin plummeted to 5.62%, leading to a 99% decline in net profit [7] - The company reported a negative gross margin of -0.07% for its lithium business in 2024, indicating that the cost of lithium products exceeds revenue [7][8]