美的集团(0300.HK)：25Q1业绩增长超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies for home appliances and foreign exchange gains [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 128.43 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.42 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-over-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 12.75 billion yuan, also reflecting a 38.0% year-over-year increase [1] Business Segments - Smart home business revenue grew by 17.4% year-over-year, benefiting from the national appliance replacement policy and strong overseas sales [1] - Revenue from commercial and industrial solutions increased by 25.3% year-over-year, with new energy and industrial technology revenue rising by 45% [1] - The company completed acquisitions of Arbonia's climate division and Toshiba Elevator's China operations during Q1 [1] - Robotics and automation revenue grew by 9% year-over-year, with KUKA's orders in China increasing by over 35% [1] Cost Structure and Profitability - Gross margin decreased by approximately 1 percentage point year-over-year due to changes in sales structure [2] - Financial expense ratio decreased by 2.7 percentage points, primarily due to increased foreign exchange gains, impacting financial income by about 2.8 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company expects continued benefits from home appliance subsidies in China and rapid growth in overseas markets [2] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 44.46 billion yuan, 48.02 billion yuan, and 52.17 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 15.4%, 8.0%, and 8.6% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 5.8 yuan, 6.3 yuan, and 6.8 yuan for the same period [2] - The company maintains a reasonable valuation with H-share P/E ratios of 12X, 11X, and 10X for 2025-2027 [2] - The dividend yield exceeds 4%, enhancing the company's attractiveness [2]