广州，仍在阵痛期

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou's GDP growth has significantly lagged behind both national and provincial averages, raising concerns about its economic status as it drops from being one of China's top cities to a lower ranking [2][6][18]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, Guangzhou's GDP reached 753.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, which is below the provincial growth of 4.1% and national growth of 5.4% [3][5][6]. - Guangzhou's GDP growth has been declining for three to four years, with a notable drop to 1.02% in 2022, and a recovery to 4.55% in 2023, but still not keeping pace with other cities [11][12][13][18]. Comparison with Other Cities - Among the 27 cities with GDP over one trillion yuan, Guangzhou ranks second to last in growth, only ahead of Foshan [8]. - In the group of eight cities with GDP over two trillion yuan, Guangzhou ranks last in growth, with a nominal increase of over 20 billion yuan less than Hangzhou [9]. Economic Structure - The economic structure of Guangzhou is heavily reliant on the tertiary sector, which accounted for 91.4% of GDP growth in 2024, while the primary and secondary sectors contributed only 0.5% and 8.1% respectively [21][19]. - The real estate sector, a significant part of the tertiary industry, has been underperforming, negatively impacting overall economic growth [24][26]. Industry Challenges - The automotive industry, a key pillar of Guangzhou's economy, has faced challenges, with a 20.12% decline in production in 2024, leading to a drop in the city's ranking from first to third in automotive output [27][34]. - Guangzhou's industrial output in Q1 2025 showed a slight increase of 0.6%, indicating a potential stabilization, but traditional industries are struggling while new industries are not yet fully developed [32][34]. Emerging Industries - New growth points are emerging in sectors such as electric vehicles, with XPeng Motors showing a significant increase in deliveries, indicating a shift towards new energy vehicles [35][39]. - Guangzhou has established itself as a leader in live-streaming e-commerce, with a retail volume of 517.1 billion yuan in 2024, and has also become a major hub for cross-border e-commerce [41][41]. Conclusion - Guangzhou is currently undergoing a challenging transition, with old growth drivers declining and new ones developing slowly. The city's resilience and patience in navigating this transformation will be crucial for its economic recovery [29][40].