“苹果给了印度希望，结果中美谈成了……”

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China tariff agreement disrupts India's ambitions to become a manufacturing hub, potentially causing a halt or reversal of manufacturing investments that were expected to flow from China to India [1][8]. Group 1: Manufacturing Investment Dynamics - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China may lead to a stagnation or reversal of manufacturing investments that were anticipated to shift to India [1][4]. - Despite some optimism regarding India's potential as a manufacturing alternative to China, challenges such as a poor business environment, heavy reliance on Chinese supply chains, and insufficient development of high-value industries remain significant obstacles [1][4][5]. Group 2: Economic and Trade Relations - India has seen a rise in new export orders, indicating some capacity to fill gaps left by Chinese manufacturers, with 40% of goods exported to the US overlapping with those from China [3][4]. - Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US, as well as a recent trade agreement with the UK, may provide India with opportunities to benefit from the so-called "China exodus" [3][4]. Group 3: Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector - India's manufacturing sector has stagnated at around 15% of GDP for two decades, and the government's initiatives, such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, have had limited success [4][5]. - The Indian electronics industry, particularly in iPhone manufacturing, remains heavily dependent on Chinese raw materials and components, limiting the economic benefits derived from assembly operations in India [4][5]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Impact - The quality of jobs created by assembly lines in India is low, and the current model of importing components rather than developing local supply chains undermines potential economic benefits [5][7]. - There are concerns that India may become a transshipment point for Chinese goods to the US, which could further weaken India's ability to build its own technological and industrial base [7][9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Experts suggest that India must lower production costs, improve logistics, and establish regulatory certainty to avoid being marginalized in the global manufacturing landscape [9]. - To effectively integrate into global supply chains, India may need to engage more with China and consider joining regional trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) [9].