中美若达成贸易协议，印度不高兴

Group 1 - The recent trade policy adjustments between the US and China have cast a shadow over India's ambition to become the "world's factory," as the US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 10%, while maintaining a 27% tariff on Indian goods [1] - Experts indicate that the shift in tariff policy may lead to a stagnation or reversal of manufacturing investments that were previously directed towards India, threatening the growth of high-value industries despite the low-cost assembly segment remaining viable [1][3] - Apple's recent decision to shift a significant portion of its iPhone production from China to India contrasts sharply with the current challenges faced by India's manufacturing sector, highlighting the complexities of global supply chains [1] Group 2 - A joint venture between Foxconn and India's HCL Group has received approval for a $435 million semiconductor factory, expected to begin production in 2027, focusing initially on chip packaging and testing [2] - Apple CEO Tim Cook has emphasized that deepening operations in India is a key strategy to navigate uncertainties in US-China trade relations, with data showing that 40% of India's exports to the US overlap with Chinese products, indicating potential for short-term substitution [2] - Despite the positive outlook, India's manufacturing sector faces structural weaknesses, with manufacturing contributing only 15% to GDP and a heavy reliance on imports for core components, particularly in high-end production like iPhones [3][4] Group 3 - The Indian government's Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has shown limited success, achieving only 37% of its target output by October 2024, with subsidies disbursed falling short of initial plans [4] - Recent trends indicate a reversal of some Apple supply chain activities back to China due to quality control issues and operational challenges in Indian factories, underscoring India's shortcomings in high-end manufacturing capabilities [4] - Experts suggest that while India aims to attract Chinese investments to bolster its manufacturing sector, this could potentially undermine local technological development, emphasizing the need for integration into global supply chains [4]