从投行到交易员，华尔街已准备好：10年美债收益率冲击5%

Group 1 - Traders are betting heavily that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 5% due to concerns over increasing government debt and deficits exacerbated by Trump's tax reform [1] - Wall Street strategists, including those from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are raising their yield forecasts, with significant positions betting on the 10-year yield reaching 5% [1] - CME data shows a large-scale options trading with a total amount of $11 million betting on the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 5% in the coming weeks [1] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%, marking the highest level since November 2023, following a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 [2] - This sell-off led to an increase in yields across all maturities of U.S. Treasuries, although yields later retraced some of their gains [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan strategists noted that uncertainties in trade and monetary policy, along with structural changes in demand patterns, suggest a bearish bias in the short term [3] - The amount of options to hedge against potential larger losses at the long end of the Treasury curve has reached its highest level since April, reflecting concerns over the economic impact of aggressive trade policies [3] Group 4 - A recent JPMorgan survey indicated a rise in bearish positions on U.S. Treasuries, reaching the highest level since February 10 [4] - The trend of hedging against rising yields has been reflected in the options market, with increasing costs to hedge against sell-offs in the long end of the curve [4] - As of the week ending May 13, CFTC data showed asset managers liquidating long positions while hedge funds closed short positions [4]