STARTRADER星迈：看多美资产，唯独对美元说 "不"

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded both U.S. stocks and sovereign bonds from "neutral" to "overweight," predicting a significant shift in market dynamics due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next two years [1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6,500 points by 2026, reflecting a bullish outlook on the U.S. equity market [1][2] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve will implement a total of seven interest rate cuts by 2026, which could lead to a 25% increase in the S&P 500 index and lower the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.45% [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the favorable conditions for the U.S. dollar may be coming to an end, as the growth advantage of the U.S. economy is being matched globally, leading to a potential decline in the dollar index over the next 12 months [3] - Following a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, there is a trend of investors moving towards emerging markets and Asian assets, aligning with the forecast of a weakening dollar [3] Group 3 - Despite uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and budget discussions under the Trump administration, Morgan Stanley sees a "certainty" emerging as the most intense phase of tariff impacts has passed, suggesting that the panic selling in the market may be a thing of the past [4] - The S&P 500 has recovered to 5,940 points, but concerns remain regarding high 10-year Treasury yields at 4.51% and worries about tax cuts and deficit expansion [4] Group 4 - The era of "unhedged bets" on the dollar may be ending, as global investors are likely to reassess their foreign exchange hedging strategies due to declining attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, which could exacerbate selling pressure on the dollar [5]