积压剧集中清库存，能否解围长剧困局？

Core Viewpoint - The long drama market is facing significant challenges, with the release of previously shelved dramas being seen as a potential way to revitalize the industry, but the effectiveness of this strategy is questionable [1][10][11] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The long drama industry is experiencing a prolonged investment return cycle, low capital turnover rates, and high uncertainty, making it a less attractive investment option [11] - The production costs for high-quality dramas are rising, with reality-based dramas costing around 3.5-4 million per episode and historical dramas costing 4.5-5 million per episode [11] - Advertising revenue has significantly declined, with brand advertising income dropping from nearly 11 billion in 2018 to over 4 billion in 2024, leading to cautious spending from advertisers [12] Group 2: Impact of Shelved Dramas - The release of shelved dramas has sparked discussions about their potential to save the market, but many of these dramas do not possess the quality needed to succeed [10][13] - Successful shelved dramas like "Wuyou Du" and "Zheyao" have high-quality production teams and have generated significant viewer interest, while others have struggled to gain traction [2][4][6] - The commercial viability of shelved dramas is often compromised due to insufficient pre-release marketing and advertising, leading to lower brand investment [13] Group 3: Audience Behavior and Preferences - Viewer patience is decreasing, with reports indicating that 50% of viewers abandon a series after the first episode, and only 10% watch an entire series [18][19] - The changing preferences of audiences are evident, with a shift towards lighter, more escapist content rather than serious themes, impacting the reception of dramas like "Ren Sheng Ruo Ru Qi Jian" [20][24] - The resurgence of older dramas indicates a demand for high-quality content, suggesting that the long drama market must focus on producing compelling narratives to attract viewers [23][24] Group 4: Future Opportunities - There is potential for brands to capitalize on high-quality shelved dramas at lower costs, as these projects may offer a safer investment compared to new productions [16] - Upcoming shelved dramas featuring popular actors are being closely monitored by advertisers, indicating a possible shift in market dynamics if these dramas perform well [16]