21全球观察 | 跨大西洋关系动摇，英国脱欧后欲“浪子回头”？

Group 1 - The Allianz Group's global trade survey indicates that U.S. trade policies are undermining exporters' confidence, with 42% of exporters expecting a revenue decline of 2% to 10% in the next 12 months [1] - The recent UK-EU summit is seen as a historic moment aimed at resetting relations, with agreements reached in various sectors including trade, defense, and youth exchange [2][4] - The UK is projected to face a 15% decline in trade and a 4% reduction in GDP due to post-Brexit trade barriers, equating to an annual economic loss of £100 billion [2] Group 2 - The agreements from the UK-EU summit include a security and defense pact, a simplified food export process, and a new fisheries agreement, which are expected to boost the UK economy by nearly £90 million by 2040 [6][7] - Despite the agreements, experts believe the economic impact will be limited, as the fishing industry contributes only 0.04% to the UK's GDP, and the simplification of food import processes will have minimal overall trade effects [7][8] - The summit has improved political trust between the UK and EU, laying the groundwork for future economic negotiations, but significant breakthroughs on core economic issues remain elusive [8]