TRIP.COM(US:TCOM) Ge Long Hui·2025-05-21 17:44Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's Q1 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net revenue reached 13.9 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations; accommodation bookings grew by 23%, and transportation ticketing revenue increased by 8%, contributing 54% and 22% to total revenue respectively [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 1 percentage point to 80%; adjusted net profit rose to 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations by 9% [1][3] Operational Data - Domestic hotel night volume saw double-digit growth year-on-year in Q1, with ADR experiencing a slight decline; however, a narrowing of the decline is expected in April and May [1] - Internationally, hotel and flight bookings increased by over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region; inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year, benefiting from favorable policies [2] Market Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains robust, while overseas operations are in an investment phase; during the May Day holiday, domestic travel volume and revenue increased by 8% and 6% respectively [2] - Ctrip's domestic hotel bookings rose by 20% year-on-year during the holiday, with cross-border orders increasing by 30% and inbound bookings up by 150% [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has slightly adjusted its 2025 revenue and profit forecasts, expecting a 15% year-on-year revenue increase, with accommodation bookings growing by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3] - The target price is maintained at 591 HKD (9961.HK) / 76 USD (TCOM.US), corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, with a "Buy" rating upheld [3]