MAOYAN ENTERTAINMENT(01896.HK)：SIGNIFICANT BOX OFFICE RECOVERY IN 2025 DUE TO IMPROVED DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF BLOCKBUSTER FILMS

Core Viewpoint - Maoyan Entertainment is expected to recover significantly in 2025, driven by improvements in the domestic film industry and the introduction of its first dividend payment, leading to increased profit forecasts for the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Drivers - The primary revenue driver for Maoyan is the total box office in mainland China, with domestic blockbuster films accounting for about 80% of the box office [1]. - The box office for the 2025 spring festival season reached a historical high of RMB16.05 billion, indicating a strong recovery in the film industry [1]. - The online entertainment ticketing services experienced a revenue decline of 14.4% year-on-year in 2024, totaling RMB1,932 million, but is expected to recover in 2025 due to an improved movie roster and influx of foreign artists [2]. - The entertainment content services also saw a revenue decline of 15.3% year-on-year, totaling RMB1,949 million, but will benefit from the recovery of the domestic film industry [3]. Group 2: Profit Forecasts - The forecasts for the Company's shareholders' net profit for 2025-2027 have been increased to RMB751 million, RMB976 million, and RMB1,066 million, respectively [1]. - Adjusted shareholders' net profit forecasts for the same period have also been raised to RMB870 million, RMB1,095 million, and RMB1,185 million, respectively [1]. - The Company anticipates a dividend payout of approximately 35% of earnings over the next three years, with a yield of around 4-5% [1]. Group 3: Market Expansion - Maoyan achieved record revenue and GMV growth in 2024, including a 90% year-on-year increase in concerts GMV, while serving top domestic and international artists [2]. - The Company has strengthened its presence in Hong Kong, China, and Macau through its self-operated platform UUTIX and established partnerships in regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating further overseas expansion [2]. - The Company is involved in the production and distribution of several domestic blockbuster films expected to perform well at the box office in 2025, including titles like Honey Money Phony and Detective Chinatown 1900 [3].