滔搏(06110.HK)：不利环境下 保持高现金流质量和高比例派息

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that were in line with expectations, showing a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year and a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% to 1.29 billion RMB [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a final and special dividend of 0.14 RMB per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 135%, maintaining a high dividend distribution [1]. - Revenue decline was attributed to weak demand and pressure on offline foot traffic, with a 5.4% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the second half of FY25, which was an improvement compared to the first half [1]. - Retail business revenue for the first and second halves of FY25 decreased by 8.9% and 4.8% year-on-year, respectively, due to increased inventory clearance in online channels [1]. - The main brand's revenue fell by 6.1% year-on-year, while other brands saw a 9.9% decline, primarily due to weakness in the leisure sports segment [1]. - The company closed 1,382 stores, reducing the total to 5,020, with total sales area decreasing by 12% year-on-year [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company maintained a cautious approach to store openings and accelerated the elimination of inefficient stores [1]. - Despite revenue pressures, the company achieved a 20% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow, reaching 3.77 billion RMB, supported by effective working capital management [2]. - Inventory decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, and accounts receivable dropped by 43%, reducing cash consumption [2]. Future Outlook - The company holds a cautiously optimistic view for the new fiscal year, focusing on efficiency and profit improvement, with plans to continue cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [2]. - For FY26, the company expects net profit to remain flat year-on-year, with an improvement in net profit margin [3]. - The EPS forecast for FY26 has been revised down by 24% to 0.21 RMB, with an introduction of FY27 EPS forecast at 0.26 RMB [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to 13/11 times the FY26/27 earnings, with a target price of 3.10 HKD, reflecting a stable valuation [3].